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Supranationals

Global Home > Supranationals

EU, EIB Ratings Are Resilient to a No-Deal Brexit

The European Union and the European Investment Bank's 'AAA'/Stable ratings would not be affected by a no-deal Brexit. The EIB is expected to benefit from full replacement of the UK's capital, while short-term risks to the EU budget are manageable.

2019 Outlook: Supranationals

The  rating Outlook for supranational institutions is Stable, reflecting resilience of their intrinsic performances to economic and political  turbulence  and  strong  support  from shareholders. The distribution of ratings is heavily skewed towards the high end of investment grade, with 13 of the  30  Fitch-rated entities rated ‘AAA’,  and  only  three issuers  rated sub-investment  grade. The supranationals sector displays the strongest credit quality of any rated group

Fitch Downgrades Gulf Investment Corporation to 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable

The downgrade of GIC reflects Fitch's view that shareholders' capacity to provide extraordinary support has diminished. GIC's ratings are driven by the support from its six sovereign shareholders. Following the downgrade by the agency of Oman's Long-Term IDR to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' on 18 December 2018, the average rating of GIC's shareholders is now 'A-', down from 'A' previously.

Fitch Upgrades International Investment Bank to 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable

The upgrade of IIB's IDR reflects the improvement in Fitch's assessment of the bank's solvency to 'a' from 'a-'. This in turn results from strengthening in the bank's overall risk profile measured by Fitch following its re-assessment of IIB's exposure to credit risk, increased geographic diversification of its loan portfolio and the strengthening of its risk management framework.

IIB HQ Move Highlights Shift Towards CEE Lending

International Investment Bank's decision to move its headquarters to Budapest from Moscow highlights its continued expansion into Central and Eastern Europe, Fitch Ratings says. The relocation could strengthen our assessment of IIB's operating environment and strategy, while a EUR200 million capital increase could support our assessment of its public mandate.

Loans vs Equity, Risk Control Key for TDB, Afreximbank

Positive rating actions on Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank and African Export and Import Bank highlight improving solvency metrics at both lenders. Future rating direction will be driven by their ability to maintain strong capitalisation and limit credit risk despite rapid loan growth, and to boost liquidity buffers.

Webcast Replay: Preferred Creditor Status

Listen to our on-demand webcast led by Eric Paget-Blanc, Senior Director, Sovereign Ratings on multilateral development banks’ comparative advantage.

PCS Key Advantage for MDBs; Strength Differs Among Institutions

Preferred creditor status (PCS) is a key advantage for multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, it is weaker for regional multilateral development banks (MDBs) in particular those operating in Middle East and African, than for European and sub-regional MDBs.

Supras' Metrics Weaken as Loans Grow Faster than Capital

eakening capitalisation and profitability in recent years have started to challenge supranational institutions' credit profiles. We expect credit metrics to stabilise, but this will partly depend on shareholders' willingness to provide additional capital.

Budget Proposal Supportive for EU, Cohesion Funds to Fall

The European Commission's proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework would support the creditworthiness of the European Union ('AAA'/Stable) despite the negative impact of Brexit on EU funding.

CEMAC Zone Boosts External Buffer, Faces Fiscal Challenge

The regional central bank, BEAC, has taken a critical role in efforts to adapt to lower oil prices. A 50bp increase in the policy rate last year has contributed to lower imports, as has BEAC's move to stop providing financing to CEMAC member governments. 

rating action

European Union and Euratom Affirmed at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

Credit risk faced by the EU is significant, as loans are made to countries experiencing economic difficulties and are highly concentrated among a few borrowers, most notably Portugal (upgraded to BBB/Stable from BB+ in December 2017) and Ireland (upgraded to A+/Stable from A also in December 2017) accounting for 45% and 42% of the total portfolio, respectively.

Emerging Europe Sovereign Credit Overview

The ramp-up of disbursements of EU funds and the strengthening of key western European trade partners are bolstering growth in central and eastern Europe. Domestic demand is also robust, supported by easy monetary conditions and falling unemployment, while tourism is benefiting from adverse security conditions in competitor markets. 

Rating Action

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Assigned 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

The ratings of AIIB are based on its existing and expected intrinsic strengths. Created in 2015, AIIB has been endowed with a substantial capital base which will support the projected rapid expansion in lending; exposure to risk will be mitigated by a comprehensive set of policies and by high quality governance.

Latin America Macro Economy Improves, But Downside Risk Remains

The region has benefited from stronger global growth that has driven a gradual recovery in commodity prices and moderate currency appreciation. Weaker domestic demand has eased inflation and driven more moderate monetary policies. Latin American economies are expected to recover in 2017, with GDP projected to grow 1.2%.
 

rating action

African Development Bank Affirmed at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

AfDB enjoys strong support from its 80 member states, which include 26 non-African countries with high average ratings. Callable capital subscribed by member states rated 'AAA', the largest of which are the US, Germany and Canada, accounts for 21% of the total. 

European Investors See Pick-Up in Inflation Risk

European bond investors see inflation as a bigger risk than deflation for the first time in more than five years, according to Fitch Ratings' latest senior fixed-income investor survey. 

Contacts

Global

James McCormack

Analytical Group Head

+44 20 3530 1286

Global

Tony Stringer

Analytical Chief Operating Officer

+44 20 3530 1219

Global

Jose Santos

Business Group Head

+34 93 323 9044

EMEA

Béatrice Hue

Business

+33 1 44 29 91 72

North America

Kathleen Holtzman

Business

+1 212 908 9103

Global

Eric Paget-Blanc

Head of Development Finance Research

+33 1 44 29 91 33

Global

Arnaud Louis

Head of Supranational Ratings

+33 1 44 29 91 42

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