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Global Home > ABS

Light Truck RV Performance to Slow in US Auto Lease ABS

The supply of used light trucks (SUVs/CUVs/Trucks) will continue to swell in 2018 and into 2019, placing downward pressure on residual values (RV) in auto lease asset backed securities (ABS), Fitch Ratings says. Auto lease ABS pools have high exposure to these segments, particularly 2016-2018 vintages, given the vehicles' high popularity and strong sales patterns. 
 

UK Credit Card Lending Growth Continues; Households Remain Vulnerable

Fitch Ratings maintains a stable rating outlook for the UK credit card sector, based on the buffer between UK trusts' current performance and the agency's through the cycle steady-state assumptions.

Structured Finance Faces LIBOR Coordination Risk

Stronger provisions in transaction documentation ahead of LIBOR's discontinuation are an important step to limit the number of legacy structured finance (SF) contracts, Fitch Ratings says. However, much still needs to be done before the end of 2021 when forced LIBOR panel participation will end.

Marketplace Lenders' Credit Catchup Uncertain for US ABS

Investors should be cautious before assuming the stronger collateral pools of recent marketplace loan ABS will perform better than prior transactions. Attempting to offset weakening performance on recent originations, particularly from the lowest quality borrowers, lenders have pulled back noticeably on lending to lower FICO score and internal credit tier borrowers. The adequacy of such measures is unclear at this point.

Swelling Used Vehicle Supply to Dent Recoveries for US Auto ABS

Falling used vehicle values and swelling supply are set to continue at least through next year, which will lead to worsening recoveries and heightened performance pressures for both auto loan and lease ABS.

European Auto ABS Index Performance Weakens in 1Q18

European auto ABS performance in 1Q18 showed signs of deteriorating performance as delinquencies and losses are slowly, but steadily, building up, Fitch Ratings says in the "2Q18 Auto ABS Index - Europe" report. The three-month average (3MA) Fitch 30+ Delinquency Index and the Fitch 60+ Delinquency Index increased to 0.89% and 0.45%, respectively, from 0.8% and 0.41% in 4Q17.

Canadian Credit Card ABS Chargeoffs Fall Again

As household debt continues to rise, chargeoffs on Canadian credit card ABS continue to fall, according to Fitch Ratings in its latest index for Canadian credit card ABS.
 

US Credit Card ABS Chargeoffs Pass 3% in 1Q; Retail Weakens

Chargeoffs averaged 3.14% during first-quarter 2018 (1Q18) compared with 2.84% for all of 2017. Normalization is likely to continue, though chargeoffs will stay well below recessionary highs for the foreseeable future. Delinquencies also rose to 1.15% in 1Q18 from 1.09% in 4Q17. "Increasing debt is usually a sign of growing confidence in the economy, though consumer debt has now reached pre-recession levels and thus cannot be ignored," said Senior Director Herman Poon.

Depreciation Up, Recoveries Lower, No US Auto ABS Impact

Depreciation on two to six-year old vehicles in the U.S. is forecast at 17% for 2018, up from 13% in 2017, according to Black Book. This is due to rising used supply entering the wholesale markets, driven in part by a 12% jump yoy in lease returns coming due. Fitch Ratings believes this will drive recovery rates in auto asset backed securities (ABS) lower and prime cumulative net losses (CNL) will creep up to 1.0% in 2018.

German Court Ruling Underscores Risk to Diesel Car Prices

This week's German court ruling that cities can impose restrictions on diesel vehicles sets the stage for diesel car bans, which will keep pressure on demand and prices. We believe Fitch-rated German auto ABS deals would prove resilient in the face of sharp car price declines, but we will continue to monitor the market to assess whether we need to adjust our asset performance assumptions. 

Australia: The Dinkum ABS Index

Latest: Low 4Q17 Australia Auto ABS Net Losses Despite Rising Arrears

Canadian Credit Card Users Keeping Pace with Rising Debt

Steadily rising Canadian household debt is not dissuading credit card users from paying off their balances in full and on time. Both chargeoffs and delinquencies remained stable for Canadian credit card ABS last quarter. Chargeoffs averaged 3% in fourth-quarter 2017 while 60+ day delinquencies hovered at around 1% for the quarter (compared to 2% a decade ago).

What to Watch in 2018

Outlook compendium for Global Aviation

Auto ABS Index: Europe

European auto ABS performance was stable in 4Q17 as delinquencies and losses remained close to the levels observed in 3Q17.

What to Watch in 2018

Outlooks compendium for Global Autos and related outlook

US Credit Card Chargeoffs Finish 2017 Below 3%

After passing 3% for the first time in three years, US credit card ABS chargeoffs fell back under that threshold to close out 2017. Chargeoffs declined to 2.93% last quarter, higher than the 2.33% seen in fourth-quarter 2016.

2018 Outlook

2018 Rating Outlook on New Zealand ABS Remains Stable

We have a Stable Outlook on the ratings of all outstanding New Zealand ABS transactions, supported by strong economic fundamentals, individual structural features and transaction performance. More Global 2018 Credit Outlooks

Losses Up Again for US Credit Card Issuers in 3Q

Performance weakened marginally for US credit card issuers again last quarter with more of the same likely for the next several quarters, as the sector continues its normalization.

2018 Outlook

Korean ABS Outlook Remains Stable

The outlook on Korean credit card and auto loan ABS transactions rated by Fitch Ratings is stable. The stable outlooks on the ratings of seven credit card and two auto loan transactions are supported by asset performance, robust transaction structures and the agency's expectations for the economy. More Global 2018 Credit Outlooks

India Auto ABS Pools to Outperform Originator Portfolios

We believe that Indian auto ABS transactions will continue to outperform the vintage portfolios of their respective originators. The transactions we rate typically have peak 90+days past due (dpd) rates that are 30% to 60% lower than those of vintage pools for the respective originators.

Brazilian Structured Finance Weathers the Storm: Local ABS/RMBS Performance Proves Resilient

While Brazil has suffered a deep economic crisis from 2014 until early 2017, the performance of Fitch's National Scale Brazilian Structured Finance portfolio has been resilient.

ABCP Scorecard

The ABCP Scorecard features snapshots for each of the ABCP programmes rated by Fitch globally. Through a combination of key programme facts and attributes — including conduit biographical data, structural support features and protection mechanisms, and programme outstandings — our profile reports provide investors with consistent background information for evaluating ABCP programs

UK Credit Card Outlook Stable as Consumer Borrowing Reaches Record Levels

The three-month average rolling charge-off index remained stable at 3.6% during 3Q17. We maintain a stable outlook on the sector despite some expected asset deterioration over the next 12-18 months, due to substantial buffers between trust steady state levels and current performance metrics.

UK Auto ABS Resilient but PCP Rise adds to Value Risk

The growth of Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) contracts has increased car market value risk in the UK auto ABS markets. This was already an established feature of UK transactions, due to consumers' long-standing voluntary termination rights. 

New Lessors Enter Aircraft ABS; Lessee Pool Mix Weakens

Smaller aircraft lessors have increasingly sponsored global aircraft ABS during the last 18 months, while larger, established lessors have sought financing elsewhere. More participation from new, less established lessors is leading to changes in the composition of the securitized aircraft collateral pools, which could raise risks.

Demand, Price Falls Highlight German Used Diesel Car Risk

Diesel cars' share of German used car sales posted a steeper-than-normal monthly decline in August, dropping below 30% for the first time in nearly four years. Relative demand for used diesel cars regularly peaks in July but diesel has failed to recapture the share of new car sales it lost in 1Q17.

Weakening European Auto ABS Performance in 3Q17

The Fitch 30+ Delinquency Index and the Fitch 60+ Delinquency Index increased to 0.8% and 0.39%, respectively, from 0.75% and 0.37% in 2Q17. 

ABS Demand Unlikely to Alter Consumer Banks' Funding Mix

Increased issuance of asset-backed securities by US banks and nonbank financial institutions could affect some issuers' credit profiles if it leads to a sustained increase in secured wholesale funding sources.

Virtual Investor Meeting: The Consumer Tide Turns for US ABS

Rising consumer debt in the broader market will drip down into US ABS performance with some worsening ahead during the second half of the year.

EMEA Structured Finance Losses Remain Very Low

Total losses of just 0.25% have been realised on the EUR3.23 trillion of Fitch-rated EMEA SF notes issued between 2000 and 2016. 

Contacts

Ben McCarthy

APAC

Ben McCarthy

Analytical

+61 2 8256 0388

Markus Papenroth

EMEA

Markus Papenroth

Analytical

+44 203 530 1707

Nigel Green

EMEA

Nigel Green

Business

+44 20 3530 1507

John Bella

NORTH AMERICA

John Bella

Analytical

+1 212 908 0243

Wendy Cohn

North America

Wendy Cohn

Business

+1 212 908 0681