Fitch Ratings forecasts subdued home price growth in 2020-2021 due to stretched affordability, more challenging economic growth prospects and macro-prudential measures restricting mortgage eligibility. This is despite falling or very low mortgage rates, insufficient supply in major cities and stable or improved employment levels in most countries.
Related Webinars:
Risks to Global Housing Markets – What to Watch in 2020 (Europe) – Listen here
Risks to Global Housing Markets – What to Watch in 2020 (Asia) – Listen here
At our Risks to Watch in European Structured Finance series which took place in London, Frankfurt and Paris, senior analysts from Fitch discussed the risks affecting this sector and the key credit drivers across all asset classes. We have selected highlights from the event and sector to share with you
Fitch Ratings has been recognised as the best rating agency for structured finance at FinanceAsia's annual 2019 achievement awards and was also voted Australian structured finance rating agency of the year by KangaNews. FinanceAsia also named Fitch as the best credit ratings agency for financial institutions and public finance.
The overall benefits of U.S. whole business securitization, or corporate securitization, are often overstated. Part of Fitch's reasoning rests on the fact that many of these sponsors are securitizing the vast majority of their assets and liabilities, a rather stark contrast to traditional securitizations that are designed to isolate only a part of the assets from the fortunes of the company itself.
The outlook on the ratings and asset performance for Fitch-rated Japanese structured finance transactions, including auto loan ABS and apartment loan CMBS, are mostly stable.
Fitch Ratings' Outlook on the ratings of its eight credit card and two auto-loan Korean ABS transactions is Stable, supported by resilient asset performance, benign interest rates and robust transaction structures despite the agency's expectations of slower domestic economy.
Fitch Ratings revised its 2020 asset outlook on Indian auto loans to stable-to-negative, from stable in 2019, due to the country's major economic slowdown; we forecast GDP growth to decline to 4.6% in the financial year ending March 2020.
The application of blockchain technology in securitizations in China seems to have proceeded at a faster pace than in other parts of the world, with multiple platforms developed independently.
Fitch Ratings maintains a stable asset performance outlook and Stable rating Outlook for Chinese auto-loan ABS and RMBS for 2020. We expect asset performance to be supported by an expanding, albeit slowing, economy, as highlighted by still-low unemployment and rising disposable incomes.
UK retailers' use of Company Voluntary Arrangements (CVAs) is accelerating the commercial property market's adjustment to sector stress, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
Related webinar: CVAs Are Transmitting UK Retail Stress to Prime Regional Shopping Centres
Indian auto-loan ABS transactions will continue to outperform the portfolios of their respective originators. The transactions we rate typically have peak 90+days past due (dpd) rates that are 30% to 60% lower than the vintage pools of the originators for the different loan types. The key reason for the better performance of securitised transactions is the exclusion of a riskier portion of the originators' portfolios.
Following the decline in UK used car values in recent months, Fitch Ratings notes that based on model-implied outcomes, an additional 5% reduction to its net base-case sale proceeds assumption would impact senior auto ABS notes' ratings by one notch. A 2% decline is unlikely to have any effect on senior notes.
Fitch Ratings' outlook for asset performance of and ratings on Australian and New Zealand structured finance is stable for 2020. The agency's view, which remains unchanged from 2019, is due to the sector being supported by continued GDP growth of 2.3% for Australia and 2.4% for New Zealand.
The conditional prepayment rate on Australian mortgages rebounded from a 19-year low in 3Q19 to be up by 330bp to 19.0%, says Fitch Ratings in a new report. Prepayment rates have been low since 2017, with the conditional prepayment rate below 20% for the entire period; the longest period that the rate has remained below this level.
China's credit card ABS performance has deteriorated significantly over the past 21 months amid aggressive expansion by some banks into consumer finance, rising household debt and the spillover from the crackdown on shadow banking.
Fitch Ratings has launched an ESG 'heat map' covering 54 different sub-sectors across 4,821 transaction and programme ratings for structured finance (SF) and covered bonds (CVB), to provide further insight into the relevance of ESG factors to credit ratings. The map is designed to help users understand how relevant individual ESG topics are to credit ratings across different sub-sectors for ABS, CMBS and RMBS transactions, and CVB programmes.
Engineering high ground rent ratios on commercial property significantly increases credit risk of leasehold collateral. With low interest rates, leverage is more likely to be constrained by loan-to-value limits than debt service coverage. To bypass this constraint additional funding can be raised by carving sizeable ground rent strips out of higher-yielding properties for sale to third parties.
Listen to Fitch Ratings content on demand for webinars which will outline Fitch’s recently launched ESG relevance scores for structured finance and covered bonds.
Australian fixed-income investors consider political and geopolitical risk to be the greatest threat to domestic credit markets over the next 12 months. A record-high 74% of respondents consider this to be a high risk; in fact, all top-five risks are linked to politics or possible fallouts from political disagreements, such as a China hard landing or a housing-market downturn.
Our ESG Relevance Scores show the relevance and materiality of ESG to our rating decisions and are integrated into our ABS, CMBS and RMBS transaction reportsand covered bonds program research to transparently and consistently display the impact of ESG elements on our credit ratings.
Fitch Ratings says social and governance risks have the most impact on its new environmental, social and governance relevance scores for structured finance and covered bonds (SF and CvB) ratings globally. Initial results show on aggregate 18% of transactions and programs across SF and CvB asset classes contain contributing ESG factors or credit rating drivers.
The assignment of investment-grade ratings to securitisation transactions by new lenders in Australia depends on whether they can establish a stable set of underwriting criteria, a viable business model and a reliable asset performance track record over a considerable period of time.
Structured finance transactions in APAC continued their steady performance in 3Q19, with 94 transactions affirmed, seven upgraded, 20 assigned new ratings and one Rating Watch maintained.
Industry initiatives and adaptations in market practices continue in anticipation of the discontinuation of IBOR indices. But progress is uneven across jurisdictions and asset classes. For structured finance (SF), like other markets, key uncertainties relating to legacy contracts and transition in consumer products remain.
Data collated by Fitch (which does not rate deals in this sector) shows aggregate performance deterioration in 27 credit card ABS transactions originated by seven banks. Some of their mother pool static performance data reported in shelf registration documents point to a similar trend.
In our latest virtual investor meeting on European CLOs, Head of EMEA structured credit, Matthias Neugebauer, discusses the latest trends in loan documentation and key risks for the sector.
October 17th from 8:30am – 1pm
etc.venues St Paul's, London, EC1A 4HD
Fitch Ratings is pleased to invite you to our European Structured Finance conference in London. Join Fitch’s senior analysts as they discuss the risks affecting the sector and come away with a clear sense of the key credit drivers across all asset classes.
Mezzanine investors are facing a more challenging assessment of the risk-return trade-off following the record level of redemptions across Fitch-rated trust preferred (TruPS) CDOs observed in 2018, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report. Fitch believes that additional redemptions will be idiosyncratic in nature and unlikely to continue at the same pace as in the recent past.
National house prices continued to fall. However, declines have slowed and losses from the sale of collateral property remain extremely low, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments or excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions during the quarter.
Loss levels remained significantly below Fitch's expectations and we expect that ratings can withstand multiples of current loss levels, with stable macroeconomic conditions supporting borrowers' ability to service debt.
The UK, Germany, Spain and Italy all show a declining trend in used car prices this quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest index report for auto ABS in Europe. The change is particularly pronounced in the UK, where Brexit uncertainty is weighing heavily on consumer confidence.
The Australian Prudential and Regulation Authority (APRA) in July 2019 announced its final rules on banks' total loss-absorbing capacity, which called on the four major banks to increase their capacity by 3pp of risk-weighted assets by January 2024.
Data released this week by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed that total auto production fell by 10.7% yoy in April-July 2019 and passenger vehicles sales dropped by 21.6% yoy.
The performance of Chinese auto ABS and RMBS transactions remained strong in 2Q19, despite the country's increasing household debt, due largely to the tight underwriting standards imposed by regulators, Fitch Ratings says. We continue to maintain the stable outlook for these two sectors.
Auto-ABS issuance reached CNY78.4 billion by end-June 2019, exceeding issuance in the first three quarters of 2018. This was partly led by the continued rise in the auto-finance penetration rate to approximately 50% by end-2018, although it remained significantly lower than that of developed markets.
While both the leveraged loan and U.S. CLO markets are seeing more late cycle behavior emerging, the make-up of the markets themselves has changed quite radically of late, according to Fitch Ratings in its 2019 Virtual Investor Video Series for Structured Finance.
Chinese household debt has continued to rise rapidly, reaching 85% of disposable income at end-2018. Rising servicing costs will weigh on economic growth in the medium term and this is reflected in our latest GDP forecasts.
Over the last few months Fitch has been testing the resilience of our portfolio of post-crisis European CLOs against a credit cycle downturn. Senior analysts from Fitch’s structured credit team discussed the topic and gave an insight into the parameters of our tests and the conclusions in this webinar.
Unemployment is at its lowest level in half a century and wages are still growing. John Bella discusses what this means for core assets like credit cards, prime autos and even student loans in our Virtual Investor Meeting for U.S. ABS.
Chinese household debt has continued to rise rapidly, reaching 85% of disposable income at end-2018. Rising debt servicing costs do not pose near-term risks to financial stability, but will weigh on economic growth in the medium term and this is reflected in our latest GDP forecasts.
Fitch Ratings believes there are opportunities for specific retail and consumer companies to outperform the overall industry, even amidst slowing retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment. Consumers are becoming more selective in their purchases, but are still keen to spend, particularly in lower-tier cities, where income growth is higher.
The property market in Australia has always caught investors’ attention. Chris Stankovski, Senior Director, Structured Finance, Australia, shares his views on the market performance, outlook, and how the regulatory landscape for mortgages has changed in Australia.
Total losses on US and Canadian structured finance (SF) bonds are concentrated in crisis-era transactions (2005-2007 vintages) and primarily consist of losses on US RMBS, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. Losses on SF tranches issued prior to 2009 contribute 99.9% of total SF losses. Approximately 95% of pre-crisis bond issuance is resolved (repaid or loss realized) or withdrawn.
The China Securitisation Market has seen phenomenal growth in the past few years. Hilary Tan, Senior Director and Head of Greater China Structured Finance, discusses the developments and key drivers behind the growth.
A widening array of innovative mortgage loans emerging this late in the economic cycle will merit some caution for U.S. RMBS investors, as Rachel Noonan discusses in our first 2019 Virtual Investor Meeting for Structured Finance.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the rating on the class B notes from Fuyuan 2018-2 Retail Auto Mortgage Loan Securitization Trust , and affirmed the ratings on the class A1 and A2 notes. The transaction is a securitisation of Chinese automotive loan receivables originated by Ford Automotive Finance (China) Limited (FAFC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Ford Motor Credit Company LLC (BBB/Negative/F2).
Delegates at this year's Global ABS conference in Barcelona were considerably less optimistic about publicly-placed European structured finance issuance volumes compared to last year, according to a survey conducted by Fitch Ratings. Just 36% of respondents expected 2019 issuance volumes to beat last year's EUR162.3bn, down sharply from 77% in 2018 that expected a year on year rise.
Structured finance transactions in EMEA continued to perform well in 1Q19, with 83% of Fitch's ratings affirmed or kept stable (967 tranches), 16% upgraded (186 tranches) and only 1% (14 tranches) downgrade.
Unclear Euribor definitions could overstate the reported weighted average spread (WAS) of European collateral loan obligations (CLOs). Investors should examine the WAS definitions carefully to gain awareness of the possible WAS uplift due to negative Euribor and evaluate the impact of WAS adjustments when comparing CLO transactions.
The Fitch 30+ and 60+ Delinquency Indices remained stable in 1Q19, although the overall trend has been of gradually rising arrears since mid-2016, says in its latest index report for the sector.
Catch up on our latest webinar:
European Auto ABS 2Q19 Update available here On-demand
Falling house prices pose the most serious threat to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to Australian fixed-income investors. The vast majority (95%) of investors expect house prices to keep falling over the next 12 months.
Fitch Ratings has started tracking the performance of transactions issued in the China Interbank Bond Market by publishing RMBS and Consumer ABS indices.
Total losses on EMEA structured finance (SF) are low and are concentrated in certain crisis-era transactions, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. More than three-quarters of all expected losses have now been realised.
However, the index is stabilising at a slightly higher level compared with 2017 due to a crackdown on cash loans, which has also affected borrowers that entered the car-finance market. An increase in issuers with shorter histories and a wider customer base may also be pressuring asset performance.
Falling house prices pose the most serious threat to Australian credit markets over the next 12 months, according to Australian fixed-income investors. Fitch Ratings and KangaNews' 2Q19 survey reveals that 70% of fixed-income investors rank a domestic housing-market downturn as the top risk to local credit markets, with a notable shift in sentiment. The survey was undertaken in partnership with KangaNews - a specialist publishing house that provides commentary on fixed-income markets in Australia and New Zealand.
Fitch Group and the Loan Syndications and Trading Association (LSTA) today announced that Fitch Group's leveraged loan expertise will now be available to LSTA members alongside the LSTA's other resources.
Welcome to the Asia-Pacific Structured Finance Newsletter. This newsletter presents a quick summary of structured finance news and developments in APAC each month.
A total of 227 tranches from the transactions in APAC were affirmed, with RMBS accounting for 110 tranches, followed by auto ABS at 60, credit card ABS at 42, unsecured consumer loan ABS at five, single borrower CMBS at five, structured credit at three and ABCP at two.
The falling number of over-indebtedness (OI) filings by French retail borrowers is neutral for French structured finance (SF) transactions. While the decline signals that fewer borrowers are struggling to repay their debts, those who do file are likely to have particularly weak credit profiles, reducing recoveries.
The discontinuation of LIBOR could introduce basis risk for the UK non-conforming and buy-to-let (BTL) RMBS markets if assets and liabilities reset to different reference rates. Senior tranches are well protected, but junior tranches of legacy non-conforming transactions and excess spread notes of more recent BTL securitisations are more exposed.
Now Available On-Demand
A series of comments published by Fitch on the transition away from IBOR.
Late-stage arrears in rated UK non-conforming pools have risen over the past six months while arrears for prime mortgages have been stable. Continued Brexit uncertainty point to downside risks for the UK mortgage market. Download our Mortgage Market Index report for the UK to learn more
Fitch’s Chief Credit Officer, Jeremy Carter, and Group Credit Officer, Andreas Wilgen, discuss the progress which has been made to prepare financial markets for the discontinuation of IBOR indices and highlight the risks which still remain.
