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Tunisia 2019 Banking Outlook Negative on Tight Liquidity

The sector outlook for Tunisia's banks in 2019 is negative, reflecting the prospect of continued tight liquidity, rising funding costs and weak economic activity, Fitch Ratings says in an Outlook Report on banking in francophone African countries.

webcast

Fitch Proposes Key Changes to International, Local and Regional Government Rating Criteria

Join senior members of Fitch Ratings’ International Public Finance team as they outline key changes to our international, local and regional rating criteria, details of which have just been released in an exposure draft.

International LRG Criteria Exposure Draft

The criteria revisions aim at better expressing why the rating is what it is, through a clear sequence of analytical steps. Fitch rates LRGs in more than 25 countries throughout the world. These criteria revisions aim at assessing the role of the national institutional rules and allowing for unbiased international comparisons, a major challenge in the analysis of LRGs.

Shadow Banking Crackdown Lowers China's G-SIB Scores

China's clampdown on interbank activity and entrusted investments has reduced the interconnectedness and complexity of several banks, allowing some to avoid being designated as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and shifting China Construction Bank (CCB) into the lower G-SIB bucket.

UK Capacity Market Halt Affects Utilities' Cash Flows

Most of the rated energy utilities will only be marginally affected by the suspension. Drax is most exposed as capacity payments account for about 7% of its 2019 EBITDA. The ruling also raises some short-term uncertainty for the company about the timing of its ongoing acquisition of some Scottish Power generation assets, which include capacity payments. 

Peak Multiples Limit Recaps in EMEA Leveraged Credit

The CLO pipeline remains robust, while the outlook for leveraged loan issuance is more subdued. In the absence of loan supply from sponsor-driven M&As, CLOs may remain price-takers and legacy borrowers could undertake dividend recapitalisations, so long as expected recoveries on new senior instruments remain consistent with coverage tests.

Gloomy Sales Outlook to Pressure Chinese Automakers

Chinese automakers' margins are likely to be squeezed by weak passenger vehicles sales in 2019, as slowing economic growth, the ongoing US-China "trade war" and a cooling property market weigh on consumer confidence.

2019 Outlook

APAC Oil & Gas - Oil Prices Support Upstream; Capex to Increase

Fitch Ratings' stable outlook on APAC oil & gas-rated issuers reflects our expectations of minimal rating changes due to strong sovereign links for the national oil companies (NOCs) and stable outlooks on most Asian sovereign ratings. We also have a stable outlook on the sector. 

Emerging Market Sovereign Pressures to Persist in 2019

The key sources of the pressure on emerging markets over the summer remain in place. The impact of tighter US monetary policy, a strengthening dollar, and risks to global trade and growth will continue to be felt in 2019. 

Bank Fines Rising for Violating Sanctions, AML and ATF Rules

US authorities have levied the largest fines, mostly against European banks for violations of US sanctions. Rising geopolitical tensions are likely to lead to more sanctions from the US and elsewhere, which could result in more violations and more fines.

Chinese Homebuilders to Face Tougher Conditions in 2019

Chinese homebuilders are likely to face more difficult market conditions in 2019, with slowing economic growth and deteriorating sentiment likely to drag down sales volumes and stifle gains in home prices, says Fitch Ratings. We have switched the sector outlook to negative from stable in 2018. However, the downturn is likely to be muted, and the government has considerable scope to loosen policies to support the market if required.

webcast

Global Bank Regulation Review

Listen to Monsur Hussain, Fitch’s Head of Financial Institutions Research - Regulatory Policy, together with Alan Adkins, Head of Financial Institutions Central Functions and Research Group as they discuss the latest developments in prudential regulation, what is the Basel Committee doing, and the status of resolution regimes.

rating action

Dell Technologies Affirmed at 'BB+'; Revises Outlook to Negative

The ratings and Outlook follow Dell's enhanced offer to the company's Class V shareholders to exchange their Class V shares for Class C common shares in Dell or, at the option of the Class V shareholders, an aggregate cash consideration up to $14 billion, up $5 billion from the up to $9 billion original cash consideration. 

Wide Canadian Oil Differentials May Persist Despite E&P Cuts

Production cuts, higher exports by rail and an exit from refinery maintenance season in the Midwest should help ease the differential in the near-term. Still, pipeline infrastructure is a structural challenge that will continue to add volatility and cash flow risk for Canadian exploration and production (E&P) companies that most US peers lack. 

Turkish Banks' 3Q Results Confirm Declining Asset Quality

Turkish banks' 3Q18 results confirm that asset quality is gradually deteriorating as a result of the economic slowdown, lira depreciation and interest rate rises. Results under IFRS 9, available at end-2018, should add to the picture and may show more significant deterioration. Signs of pressure on foreign-currency borrowers from the depreciation of the Turkish lira in the summer could become more evident next year.

Bloomberg TV

Fitch On What Amazon’s HQ2 & Mid-Term Elections Means to Local Muni Markets

Laura Porter, Managing Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses how Amazon Inc.'s new HQ2 locations could impact the local municipal bond markets and the fate of bond initiatives in the midterm elections. She speaks with Bloomberg’s Taylor Riggs in this week’s Muni Moment on Bloomberg Markets.

Updated UK Fiscal Forecasts Still See Gradual Debt/GDP Fall

UK fiscal deficits are slightly higher in 2019 and 2020 under our updated public finance projections, but these are still consistent with a gradual fall in government debt/GDP.