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Credit Hotspot: Brexit

Latest: Fitch Ratings Sees Protection for CLEF and Getlink in Brexit Standstill

Reuters BreakingViews

"Worrying Smoke Signals Emerging From Turkey"

The country’s fifth-largest lender by assets, Akbank, has launched a deeply discounted rights issue to shore up its balance sheet, according to Reuters BreakingViews.

2019 Outlook

Stable Outlooks for China Structured Finance but Household Debt Growing

Our stable sector outlook reflects slowing (yet ongoing) economic growth coupled with stringent underwriting standards maintained by banks and auto finance companies in housing loans and auto loans, respectively.

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Fall-Back Plans Ease 'No-Deal' Brexit Authorisation Risks for FIs

Interim solutions and contingency planning with respect to derivatives and insurance claims are reducing some significant risks a "no-deal" Brexit would present to the European financial services sector.

Experience Credit Outlooks 2019

Our annual Credit Outlooks are now available. We're producing reports, video, webinars, and commentary across all sectors and regions to give you in-depth insight into credit in 2019 and beyond.

2019 outlooks

2019 Outlook: Global Sovereigns

Following a decidedly positive 2018, when upgrades outnumbered downgrades for the first time in four years, the sovereign outlook is considerably more challenging for 2019. A further tightening of global financial conditions, continued uncertainties with respect to restrictive trade measures and ongoing political tensions may stress sovereigns with elevated debt levels, especially as global growth has passed its peak.

2019 outlooks

Outlook for Japanese Structured Finance Remains Stable

The Outlooks on Fitch's ratings for seven auto ABS transactions are Stable, reflecting the steady performance of the underlying auto loans, sufficient credit enhancements and available excess spreads.

OPEC+ Supply Controls Are Key for Medium-Term Oil Prices

Changes to Fitch Ratings oil and gas price assumptions are modest, but we believe that supply controls will support medium-term oil prices in the range of USD60-USD65 a barrel for Brent crude. In the longer term, we continue to expect prices to fall below USD60/bbl driven by the falls to marginal producers' full-cycle costs.

Webcast

What Investors Want to Know: Utilities’ Renewables

Fitch Ratings senior analysts recently discussed the most frequently raised questions from investors in the European Utilities Renewables sector. 

Listen to Webcast On Demand

2019 Risks to Watch - Eurozone Tensions

As part of our Risks to Watch series, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Michele Napolitano, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the key credit concerns in the Eurozone over the next 12 months.​

webcast

Global Shipping - 2019 Outlook

Please join us for a webcast on December 4, 2018 on the 2019 outlook for the shipping industry. The presentation will be hosted by Angelina Valavina, Fitch’s lead analyst on the transportation and shipping sectors. 

 

Listen to the Webcast Replay of the Global Shipping Outlook 2019 presentation. 

2019 Outlook

China Life Product Reform Key to Profitable Growth

Fitch Ratings has maintained its 2019 rating and sector outlooks for China's life insurers at stable, on the expectation of steady economic growth and an ageing population with increasing risk awareness and demand for life and healthcare cover.

Cracks Appearing in Global Growth Picture as 2020 Headwinds Rise

Global growth is slowing and becoming less well-balanced, while downside risks are rising, particularly for 2020. "The world economy is still expanding at a rapid pace, but cracks are starting to appear in the global growth picture," said Fitch Chief Economist, Brian Coulton.

Rating Action

China Affirmed at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Slowing growth in recent quarters has triggered a recalibration of economic policy settings in favour of more supportive growth measures, away from the government's prior singular focus on deleveraging. Fitch believes the authorities will stop short of the type of credit-led stimulus policies that could significantly exacerbate medium-term financial risks and economic imbalances, but this remains a downside risk to the sovereign rating over 2019-2020.

Rise of ‘BBB’s in Corporate Finance – Risks to Watch

As part of our  2019 Risks to Watch series, Megan Neuburger, Managing Director in the U.S. Corporate Finance team, discusses the growth of ‘BBB’ credits during this credit cycle and the potential implications in the next downturn.  See our latest 2019 Credit Outlooks.

Demand Risks Weigh on Global Shipping Sector Outlook

Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers.