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COVID-19 Refinancing Risk Elevated for 6% of Rated China Corporates

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected operations of most of the 166 Chinese Fitch-rated corporates, with 6% (10 issuers) facing moderate to high risks in relation to their capital market debt maturities over the February-June 2020 period.

COVID-19 Refinancing Risk Elevated for 6% of Rated China Corps

More on the Coronavirus

Aging Populations Strain State Budgets, Pension Funding Varies

The aging US population poses a range of challenges to state finances, including providing pensions for the swelling ranks of retired public workers. However, a state's demographic profile does not necessarily determine its pension funding. 

Demographic Trends and Pension Pressures (Aging Populations and Underfunded Pensions May Present Fiscal Challenges for States)

Fixed Interests Podcast

Unrest in Chile and Colombia: The Economic Impact & Risks Ahead

What are the economic and political implications of the recent social protests in Chile and Colombia, and what does the future hold? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Richard Francis, Director of Sovereign Ratings and Primary Analyst for Colombia and Chile, discuss the aftershocks of the recent social unrest.

Chile’s Policy Response to Unrest Will Erode Buffers
Colombia’s 2020 Fiscal Target Will Prove Challenging To Meet

Credit Outlook 2020 - Leverage Tests and Credit Fundamentals

Jane Gray, European Head of Research, Covenant Review, discusses leverage tests and differences in the U.S. and Europe at our Credit Outlook 2020 Conference in London.

Sector Outlooks for 2020 Are Gloomier on Economy, Trade
Credit Outlooks 2020

Pre-Crisis Structured Finance Vintages Have Higher ESG Risk

The materiality of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors on the ratings of global structured finance transactions, reflected by ESG relevance scores (ESG.RS) of '4' or '5', is greater for older vintage structured finance credits. Pre-financial crisis vintages, originated before 2009, are most influenced by negative ESG factors.

Highlight Report:
Where ESG Matters for Global SF and CVB Ratings - A Case Study 

special report

China Perspectives: An Economic Roadmap for COVID-19

The inaugural issue of our monthly commentary series discusses the economic roadmap for COVID-19. The severity of the economic shock from the outbreak of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus, even if eventually short-lived, will almost certainly command some kind of economic policy response.

Relaxed Volcker Covered Fund Rule Portends More Deregulation

Fitch Ratings views the recent Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR) issued by regulators to amend the Volcker Rule and relax limits on certain private equity (PE) and hedge fund investments, known as "covered funds" as indicative of loosening regulation and recalibration of post-crisis regulatory rules. 

HSBC Restructuring Should Address Earnings Challenges

HSBC's restructuring plan identifies the main challenges to the bank's business model and, if implemented effectively, should help HSBC retain the key competitive advantages of its global franchise. The bank plans to further increase efficiency and link its US and European operations more closely to its international activities.

US Financials See Rising Risk from Cash Products Amid Libor Sunset

The transition from U.S. dollar (USD) London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) to its likely replacement, the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), presents heightened risks for U.S. financial institutions (FIs), Fitch Ratings says. Banks may face greater legal, operational and reputational challenges from cash products, which have lagged derivatives in moving away from Libor.

Fixed Interests Podcast

CIS and Black Sea Region Rating Cycle Slowing

Improved economic policy frameworks have helped Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Black Sea sovereigns recover from the 2014 commodity price slump and Ukraine crisis.



CIS and Black Sea Sovereign Rating Momentum Likely to Slow

German 2030 Climate Package May Become Green Law Blueprint

Germany’s sweeping package of climate policy reforms may become the blueprint for an intermediate climate action step for many nations aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.



German 2030 Climate Package May Become Green Law Blueprint

UK's EU Exit Does Not End Uncertainty

The effect of post-Brexit developments in the UK-EU relationship on the UK's economy and public finances will remain an important factor in our UK sovereign rating assessment after the UK leaves the EU on 31 January.

Sukuk Issuance Rose in 2019 as Diversification Continues

Global sukuk issuance rose 6% in 2019 as the range of issuers and investors broadened, although supply is still concentrated geographically. Long-standing structural impediments to growth remain although, as more corporates tap the sukuk market, potentially including those with weaker credit profiles, legal precedents could eventually be set clarifying creditor treatment in a default.

Medicaid Changes Will Affect States, NFP Healthcare Providers

Recent regulatory actions from the US federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) could have fiscal and credit repercussions for state governments and those reliant on state funding, particularly not-for-profit (NFP) healthcare providers.

Driverless Cars Largely a Plus for Toll Roads; Managed Lanes Vulnerable

Though likely over a decade away from widespread usage, automated vehicles (AVs) will have a transformative effect on travel and traffic patterns for toll roads, according to Fitch Ratings.

Read Full ReportThe Effect of Automated Vehicles on Toll Roads


Fitch Ratings Named Best ESG, Investment Grade, Public Finance and Sovereigns Agency

Fitch Ratings has been recognised by The Asset as the Credit Rating Agency of the Year (2019) in four categories. This includes a first-time win in the publication's Triple A Award for ESG, a back-to-back award for Investment Grade, the third award in a row for Sovereigns and the fifth consecutive win for Public Finance.

Deutsche Bank Appears on Track with Restructuring Targets

Deutsche Bank appears to be on track with its restructuring targets, but the task of transforming the bank's business model remains formidable. The bank's 4Q19 results show that planned cost reductions in 2019 were achieved, and reported capital ratios exceeded prior guidance.

Outlooks 2020

Global Auto Sector Challenges Will Raise Risk, Upend Trajectories

Weakening demand, technological change, stricter fuel emission standards and trade uncertainty may upend trends in the global auto sector and pressure profitability and cash flow.



Preview of the Exclusive Interview with Finance Minister of Malaysia Lim Guan Eng

Stephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereigns and Lim Guan Eng, Finance Minister of Malaysia discuss Malaysia’s economic outlook and challenges, budget policies, outlook of the political developments, governance and Malaysia’s role on the international stage.


Watch the full interview here



Malaysia Confronts Challenge of Shoring up Investor Confidence

Gulf Between Haves and Have-Nots Drove Retail Bankruptcies in 2019

The gulf between market share gainers and donors is widening, as weaker retailers lack the means to improve positioning, often leading to bankruptcy.


Fitch Ratings Wins Latin America Credit Services Award

Capital Finance International (, a publication focused on emerging markets, has awarded its Best Credit Services Latin America 2020 award to Fitch Ratings.

Fixed Interests Podcast

Asian Frontier Markets

Asia’s Frontier Markets have great potential, but are also prone to external financing pressures. In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, moderates a discussion with Sagarika Chandra and Jeremy Zook, Associate Directors on the Sovereigns team, to discuss the ratings outlook for Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam.


outlooks 2020

Global Bank Rating Outlooks Are Still Skewed to the Negative

Bank rating Outlooks are still skewed to the negative, although less so than six months' ago. The global share of Negative Outlooks was 13% at end-2019 and the share of Positive Outlooks 5%, compared with 17% and 6%, respectively, at end-1H19.

Outlooks 2020

2020 Outlook Broadly Stable for U.S. and Canadian CMBS, but Some Sectors Present Risks

CMBS ratings will remain mostly Stable in 2020, with areas of softening asset performance driven by idiosyncratic risks and property sector-specific concerns.

Related Video:

Positive Rating Momentum to Continue for U.S. RMBS in 2020

Political and Policy Risks Weigh on EM Sovereign Creditworthiness in 2020

Heightened tensions in the Middle East following the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani as well as a wave of protests reflecting public discontent centred on economic issues has underlined the vulnerability of emerging markets (EM) to political risk. 

outlooks 2020

Credit Journal: 2020 Credit Outlooks

Our Credit Journals are a curated compilation of Fitch Ratings’ in-depth research and commentary. This special edition covers our global sovereigns and macroeconomic credit outlooks for 2020.

Download the 2020 Credit Outlooks edition.

US-China Deal Helps World Growth Stabilise; Uncertainties Persist

The signing of the US-China "Phase One" trade deal will boost business confidence and supports our view that global economic growth will stabilise in 2020.


More on Trade Protectionism

Outlooks 2020

Global Banks: Macro Headwinds, Normalizing Credit and Weaker Profitability May Increase Vulnerability

Sector outlooks for Global Banks have turned Negative in 2020 for several key nations, including Japan and Germany, while remaining Negative for the UK, China, and India. However, rating outlooks generally remain stable due to solid capitalization levels and asset quality stability. 

Related Report:
2020 Banks Compendium Highlights Slowing Economic Growth

View all Outlooks: 

Credit Outlooks 2020

Ignoring LIBOR Cessation May Raise US Leveraged Loan Credit Risk

Potential credit risk may emerge for US leveraged loans if the base rate on loans converts to a higher Prime Rate when the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is discontinued post 2021.

Rise in US-Iran Tensions Already Captured in Sovereign Ratings

The potential for a broader escalation of conflict in the Middle East has increased with the death of senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, but remains contained as the US and Iran do not seem to have an interest in a full-scale confrontation, Fitch Ratings says.

Global Wildfire Risk Illustrates ESG Factor Relevance for Credit

Recent catastrophic wildfires in Australia and California underscore the importance of environmental considerations when evaluating the credit quality of utilities.

Related Report:
Global Wildfire Risk Illustrates ESG Factor Relevance for Credit

Fiscal Pressures Raise LatAm Vulnerability in Next Downturn

Growth in public debt burdens and fiscal deficits in many Latin American countries over the past decade will undermine the ability of governments to respond to shocks and a sharper than expected global slowdown in 2020,. 

US Municipal 2020 Outlook Series Webinars

Listen now to the webinars in the 2020 Outlook series by clicking the title below.

Related Report
U.S. Public Finance 2020 Outlook Compendium

ESG Has Growing Influence on Bank Lending to Corporates

Global banks are increasingly taking account of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in their underwriting processes. About half of the lending assets covered by the 182 banks that took part in Fitch's ESG survey in 3Q19 had been screened by the banks for ESG risks. 

Outlooks 2020: The Coming Storm

High Indebtedness, Low Growth Shapes 2020 Global Credit Outlook

A combination of slowing economic growth, sustained low interest rates and unprecedented levels of indebtedness will broadly influence the global credit outlook in 2020, says Fitch Ratings. The aggregate rise in global indebtedness in 2019, which occurred as monetary authorities reversed course on rate hikes, will increase vulnerabilities for key sectors in the event of a more rapid than expected economic downturn.

Read the Report: Fitch Ratings 2020: The Coming Storm

Outlooks 2020

Global Housing & Mortgage Outlook

Fitch Ratings forecasts subdued home price growth in 2020-2021 due to stretched affordability, more challenging economic growth prospects and macro-prudential measures restricting mortgage eligibility. This is despite falling or very low mortgage rates, insufficient supply in major cities and stable or improved employment levels in most countries.


Related Webinars:

  • Risks to Global Housing Markets – What to Watch in 2020 (Europe) – Listen here
  • Risks to Global Housing Markets – What to Watch in 2020 (Asia) – Listen here
outlooks 2020

Global Leveraged Finance & CLO Outlooks 2020

In 2020 leveraged debt issuers will continue to benefit from low rates and favorable demand, particularly from CLOs. Default rates in each region are forecast to increase but stay relatively low. Read our credit outlooks for essential insights for leveraged and distressed debt markets.

More on Leveraged Finance

View all Leveraged Finance Credit Outlooks 2020
View all Credit Outlooks 2020 and Events


ESG Trends in Credit 2020

Sustainability issues could have an impact on credit profiles if ESG commitments translate into action. Fitch has identified six key environmental, social and governance (ESG) trends for 2020 that are relevant to credit ratings, supported by Fitch's proprietary ESG Relevance Scores as well as research and insights from over 1,400 credit analysts in 30 countries


Read the Report:

ESG Credit Trends 2020

Fitch Ratings Publishes ESG Sector Template Compendium

outlooks 2020

China Credit Outlook

Stephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereigns, discusses the outlook for China sovereign, banking sector and LGFVs with Andrew Fennell, Lead China Sovereign Analyst, Grace Wu, Head of Greater China Banks, and Terry Gao, Head of APAC Public Finance.


View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Gloomy Economy, Low Rates Put Pressure on Western European Banks

The overall sector outlook for western European banks in 2020 is negative as revenue generation is likely to be pressured by the weak outlook for GDP growth and continued low interest rates, Fitch Ratings says.


Related Report:
2020 Outlook: Western European Banks

View all Outlooks:
Credit Outlooks 2020

Boeing 737 MAX Suspension Highlights Global Aerospace Risks

Boeing's decision to suspend production of its 737 MAX airplane programme underscores risks of the aerospace sector, both for airliner producers and their suppliers, Fitch Ratings says. Our ratings in the industry incorporate periodic stresses. The exact credit impact will largely depend on the length of suspension and the timing of the 737 MAX's return to service, and on potential regulatory changes.

outlooks 2020

Service Sector Resilience to Help Global Growth Stabilise in 2020

The resilience of the service sector and consumer spending growth in the advanced economies should help global growth stabilise next year, after a sharp decline in 2019, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

View all Outlooks: 

Credit Outlooks 2020
Global Economic Outlook

Large Service Sector Insulating French GDP Growth

The outsized service sector in France has cushioned its economy and contributed to a shallower slowdown than seen in its euro zone peers over the last 18 months, according to Fitch Ratings' latest Chart of the Month. With a service sector accounting for close to 80% of total output, France has been less exposed to the global manufacturing slump that has taken a particularly heavy toll on Germany and Italy.

Outlooks 2020

2020 North American Sovereign Outlook Stable despite Fiscal Pressures

Fitch Ratings expects North American sovereign ratings to be stable in 2020. Both the U.S. and Canada are rated 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook.

Rating Action

Fitch Affirms the UK at 'AA'; Off Rating Watch Negative; Outlook Negative

The outcome of the UK general election on 12 December means it is highly likely that the UK will leave the EU with a Withdrawal Agreement on 31 January 2020. This removes the short-term risk of a disruptive 'no-deal' Brexit, where the UK would leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement in place and is reflected in the removal of the RWN and affirmation of the UK's 'AA' rating.

US-China Trade Tensions Eased But Not Resolved

The "Phase One" trade deal reported to have been reached between US and Chinese negotiators offsets much of the damage done to global trade and activity prospects from earlier US plans to raise tariffs in October and December, according to Fitch Ratings. Nevertheless, trade tensions remain high and renewed escalation remains a significant risk.

Fitch Ratings Wins 2 Structured Finance Awards; Named Best in Financial Institutions & Public Finance

Fitch Ratings has been recognized as the best rating agency for structured finance at FinanceAsia's annual 2019 achievement awards and was also voted Australian structured finance rating agency of the year by KangaNews. FinanceAsia also named Fitch as the best credit ratings agency for financial institutions and public finance.

Hong Kong's Role in Global Finance Intact Despite Unrest

There is little evidence so far that the social unrest in Hong Kong has adversely affected its role as a global financial centre, even amid severe short-term economic pressures, Fitch Ratings says. However, continued turmoil is undermining perceptions of Hong Kong as a stable international business hub as well as the effectiveness of its governance, trends consistent with our Negative Outlook on Hong Kong's 'AA' rating.

Regulatory Risk Increasing amid Global Emissions Gap

The global emissions gap between government pledges and actions increases the risk of a rapid increase in the scope of climate regulation. Most countries lag substantially behind their existing Nationally Determined Contribution pledges, let alone the emissions trajectories required to limit warming to 1.5C.

Governance Weaknesses Correlate with APAC Corporate Ratings

Potential corporate governance weaknesses largely correlate with an issuer's rating level, Fitch Ratings says in report that details the findings of a recent study of a large sample of APAC corporate ratings.

Outlooks 2020

Continued Strong Operating Performance Supports Stable Outlook for US Health Insurers

Full year 2019 operating performance within the U.S. health insurance sector is expected to extend the trend of solid results established in recent years, and there are strong indications that this trend will be extended further in 2020. As a result, Fitch Ratings maintains a Stable sector outlook and Rating Outlook for the health insurance sector in 2020.

outlook 2020

Problems to Persist for U.S. Higher Education in 2020

U.S. colleges and universities will continue to struggle against operating pressures and numerous other industry challenges headed into next year, according to Fitch Ratings in its 2020 outlook report.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: U.S. Public Finance Colleges and Universities

Global Banks Start to Embrace ESG in their Risk Management

Global banks are increasingly embedding environmental, social and governance factors into their risk-management frameworks, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. More than half the 182 banks that took part in Fitch's ESG survey said they incorporated ESG considerations "always" or "most of the time" into most of their risk-management processes.

outlooks 2020

US Transportation Infrastructure Growth to Mirror Slower GDP in 2020

Volume growth remains favorable for US airports, ports and toll roads and will remain largely tethered to US GDP movement, which Fitch projects will fall below 2% for 2020. That said, "Some softness in growth may take hold to the extent issuers are exposed to global economic markets and protectionist trade policies," said Senior Director Scott Zuchorski.

Related Report: Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: U.S. Transportation Infrastructure

Most APAC Bank Sector Outlooks Stable, but Risk Appetite Rising

The sector outlooks on most Asia-Pacific (APAC) banking systems are stable, says Fitch Ratings in two reports published today. However, most banks are increasing their risk appetite in response to pressure on profitability, while the outlooks on four of the region's developed-market banking systems and three of the emerging-market banking systems are negative.


Related Report:
2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Developed Market Banks
2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Emerging Market Banks

Escaping Japanification Difficult for Eurozone If It Takes Root

The eurozone has some of the symptoms of 'Japanification', but not the full-blown condition. Critically, it has avoided outright price deflation - a key element of the experience in Japan. However, if Japanification were to become entrenched, it would leave the eurozone more vulnerable to pernicious debt deflation, prolonged stagnation, rapidly rising government debt ratios and sovereign rating downgrades

FTEurozone at risk of Japan-style stagnation, Fitch warns


WebinarWestern Europe Sovereign Ratings- 2020 Outlook

Outlooks 2020

Headline Risk Will Remain High for US Healthcare In 2020

Demand drivers for US healthcare will remain intact in 2020 with most companies managing profitability pressures but headline risk remains, says Fitch Ratings.

Policy Clarity on Urgent Challenges Key For New Argentina Gov't

Argentina's new president-elect, Alberto Fernandez, faces urgent policy challenges including turning vague campaign promises into a detailed economic plan, renegotiating the IMF Stand-by Arrangement, and restructuring debts with bondholders.


Subscribe on iTunes: Fixed Interests Podcasts

China Corporate Bond Market Blue Book: Defaults More Common; Documentation and Legal Framework Still Evolving

The China Corporate bond market has been evolving rapidly in recent years. The latest issue of China Corporate Bond Market Blue Book is an update to our last edition published in May 2015 which presents our observations on key market developments, including corporate bond defaults, post-default workouts, new bond categories, and emerging credit derivatives products.


Listen to Webinar:
China’s Corporate Bond Market: Rising Defaults Amid Further Opening-up

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