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Fitch Affirms Pakistan at 'B-'; Outlook Stable

Pakistan's ratings reflect challenging external finances and low reserve coverage, high public debt, and weak governance indicators. Recent policy actions, including an agreement with IMF staff on a forthcoming programme, should ease external finance risks, but reserve levels will take time to rise and the programme will face significant implementation risks.

Audits Could Hurt Chinese Drug Makers' Revenue, Improve Governance

The stricter oversight, which aims to cut illegitimate selling and distribution expenses in the value chain, lower drug retail prices and encourage a shift towards innovation away from hospital-relationship management, should also improve drug makers' governance standards.

Chinese Non-Life Insurers to Seek Capital on Slower Surplus Growth

Chinese non-life insurers, especially those with small scale of operation, volatile underwriting margin and high growth dynamics, are likely to seek fresh capital. The liberalisation of commercial motor insurance premium rates will limit insurers' ability to improve their margins, leading to slower surplus growth.

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Fitch Ratings Wins The Asset Triple A Islamic Finance Best Rating Agency Award 2019

For the third year in a row, The Asset Triple A Islamic Finance Awards has awarded Fitch Ratings the Best Rating Agency Award 2019.

Japan's Life Insurers Look to Foreign Bonds due to Low Domestic Yields

Fitch expects Japanese life insurers to continue to increase their allocation to foreign fixed-income assets, including those denominated in US dollars as well as other foreign currencies, to boost yields.

3D Printing May Disrupt Ports and Reduce US Imports from China

Ports may be most exposed to disruptive effects of 3D printing (3DP) on transportation infrastructure assets over the next 20 years. 3DP could reduce global trade, including reducing US imports from China by 10%-25%. Short- and medium-term risks are limited due to a still emerging technology uptake.

Japanese Major Banks' Profit to Remain Under Pressure

For the financial year ended 31 March 2019 (FYE19) results varied among the groups, reflecting the differences in costs associated with structural reforms, with MHFG posting the highest cost and the largest drop in net profit. SMTH was the only group to post an increase in net profit, due to higher trading profit and stable fee income. 

Indonesian Finance Companies Face Tighter Funding Conditions

Smaller Indonesian financing companies are finding their business models under pressure as they face scarcer funding from domestic banks. Local banks' reduced appetite for lending to independent finance companies (mostly non-bank-owned or manufacturing affiliates) should help boost the market share of top-tier players, which have more diversified sources of funding.

Malaysia Household Debt Risks Easing, But Pockets of Risk Linger

The household sector accounts for roughly 58% of bank gross loans, about 37% of which is to lower-income borrowers (those earning up to MYR5,000 a month). Such borrowers often have limited asset buffers to mitigate the risk of default, and while banks' exposures to them tend to be secured, loan-to-value ratios can be high, weakening recovery prospects. About 28% of banks' overall home loans have LTV ratios over 80%. 

New US, China Trade Restrictions Could Be Broadly Disruptive

A possible blacklisting of US companies or a ban on rare earth metals exports to the US as retaliation for restrictions on Huawei would be disruptive for the US technology sector and could also negatively affect some Chinese sectors due to globally-integrated supply chains and China's reliance on foreign technologies and exports.

Dewan Demise Highlights Funding Risk at Indian Non-Bank Lenders

Dewan Housing Corporation's liquidity problems and its reported failure this week to pay coupons highlight the funding challenges faced by India's non-bank finance sector. The liquidity pressures are in stark contrast to the banking sector, which has not faced significant liquidity pressure or deposit withdrawals, despite asset-quality and capital weaknesses.
 

Vietnam Banks Face Big Capital Burden Despite Dividend Plan

A plan to allow large Vietnamese state-owned commercial banks to pay dividends in shares or retain dividends will help them to accumulate capital and meet regulatory minimum capital thresholds.

Indonesian Developers' Presales to Improve in 2H19 as Launches Resume

Indonesian property demand is expected to recover in 2H19 from a weak 1Q19 as most developers are likely to launch new projects amid the prospects of better consumer sentiment after the April election and the Eid holiday. Nevertheless, heightened currency volatility, weak prices of key export commodities and renewed political disruptions may hamper demand.

Australian Coal Hauliers' Take-or-Pay Coal Contracts Prove Resilient

The credit profile of Australian coal hauliers is underpinned by long-term take-or-pay coal contracts and steady demand for Australian thermal coal over the medium term. A large portion of revenue in ToP coal contracts is fixed irrespective of actual customer volumes hauled. 

Japanese Non-life Insurers Well Capitalised Despite High Losses

Japan's three non-life groups - Tokio Marine Holdings, SOMPO Holdings and MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings - have maintained strong capital buffers despite record-high weather-related losses of JPY1.6 trillion in 2018, as the groups' diversified businesses tempered the poor performance of their domestic non-life segments at group level.

Settlement Risk and Drivers of Australian REIT Ratings

Fitch Ratings addresses key themes facing Australian residential developers and REITs following the country's real-estate boom over the past decade in two reports released today.

BFM

Fitch’s Jamieson: Impact of a China Slowdown on APAC Corporates

Matt Jamieson speaks with Malaysian radio station BFM 89.9 on how a severe economic slowdown in China would affect Asia-Pacific (APAC) corporates.Fitch's hypothetical China slowdown scenario assumes a contraction sparked by additional US tariffs amplified by a separate investment shock.

Listen to the interview

APAC Basic Materials, Oil & Gas Most Vulnerable to Severe China Slowdown

APAC corporates in the basic materials and oil & gas sectors would be most vulnerable in the case of a severe China slowdown scenario, followed by homebuilding, industrials and technology. There are 92 APAC issuers rated above 'B+', from different countries across the region, which could face pressure on their Issuer Default Ratings, or standalone credit profiles in the case of government-related entities.

Korean Banks to Deliver Steady Performance Despite Challenges

South Korean banks' generally conservative risk appetite and the nation's resilient economy should support the banking system to deliver a broadly steady performance over the next one to two years. This is despite challenges such as Korea's high household leverage amid a slowing economy. 

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Fitch Wins Best Rating Agency for Emerging Market Bonds at Global Capital Awards

We are pleased to announce we have been voted the Best Rating Agency for Emerging Market Bonds at this year's Global Capital Awards. "Analytical excellence is a core focus at Fitch and this further recognition from global market participants underlines the quality of our emerging market analysis and commentary, as well as our broader market outreach efforts," Brett Hemsley, Global Analytical Head for Fitch Ratings.

Learn more about Fitch and Emerging Markets

Fitch Ratings Voted Best Agency for Chinese USD Bonds in 3 Categories

Fitch Ratings has been voted the "Outstanding Rating Agency for Chinese Companies' USD Bonds" in three categories by users of Wall Street Trader, a financial web application widely used by participants in China's debt capital markets. 

China Private Education Blue Book

Revenue growth in China's private education sector, which consists of private schools and private education service providers, is likely to moderate to high-single-digits, from the low-teens.

 

Other Blue Books

You may also access the links below for more In-depth industry and bond market analysis:

Contacts

Sing Chan Ng

APAC

Sing Chan Ng

Business Inquiries

+65 6796 7210

Stephen Schwartz

Sovereigns

Stephen Schwartz

Analytical

+852 2263 9938

Buddhika Piyasena

Corporates

Buddhika Piyasena

Analytical

+65 6796 7223

Jonathan Cornish

Financial Institutions

Jonathan Cornish

Analytical

+852 2263 9901

Terry Gao

International Public Finance

Terry Gao

Analytical

+852 2263 9972

Sajal Kishore

Global Infrastructure Group

Sajal Kishore

Analytical

+65 6796 7095

Jeff Liew

Insurance

Jeff Liew

Analytical

+852 2263 9939

Ben McCarthy

Structured Finance

Ben McCarthy

Analytical

+61 2 8256 0388

Bashar Al Natoor

Islamic Finance

Bashar Al Natoor

Analytical Group Head

+971 4424 1242

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