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Chinese Banks to Test Minimum Capital Ratios Due to Coronavirus

Chinese banks' asset quality will deteriorate as Chinese and global growth slows significantly in 2020 because of the economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. We recently revised our GDP forecasts, which imply some immediate hits to Chinese banks' asset quality as non-performing loans rise.

Coronavirus Worsens Indian Banks' Already Weak Operating Conditions

Fitch Ratings has revised its operating environment mid-point score for Indian banks to 'bb', from 'bb+', as increasing challenges from the coronavirus pandemic are expected to worsen an already difficult operating environment. The outlook on the operating environment is 'negative' due to the uncertainty surrounding the severity and duration of the pandemic and the associated effects on India's banks of restrictions on economic activity.

China Auto ABS Data Give Early Indicator of Coronavirus Impact

A deterioration in Chinese auto-loan ABS performance has highlighted the impact of the government’s coronavirus control efforts on structured finance products, and may provide some early signals of how similar shutdowns in other markets could affect such products.


More on the Coronavirus


Screening of Rating Headroom and Vulnerability of APAC Corporates in light of COVID-19

Date: March 26, 2020 (Thursday)
Time: 11:00 HKT


Please join Fitch Ratings’ senior analytical team for a discussion on the latest coronavirus screener of the APAC corporate portfolio. We screened our APAC portfolio based on the exposure of an issuer’s sector and the headroom at the current rating to accommodate weakening performance. The presentation will highlight the sectors most at risk and the issuers with the lowest leverage headroom.


Register Now

39% of APAC Corporates More Exposed to Coronavirus

Almost 40% of APAC corporates operate in sectors that have ‘Moderate’ to ‘High’ exposure to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and have ‘Low’ or ‘Moderate rating headroom at their current ratings.



39% of APAC Corporates More Exposed to Coronavirus


China Express-Delivery Blue Book

China’s express-delivery sector will transit from a labour-intensive industry to a capital-and-technology intensive one, as key participants cut unit costs and improve efficiency through scale expansion and technological advancement. Industry concentration will continue rising as bigger players dominate with sharper competitive edge, and also through merger and acquisitions, strategic alliances and the exit of smaller players.


Related Webinar:

China Express-Delivery Sector – Listen Now

APAC Banking Outlooks Negative as Coronavirus Heightens Risks

Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for a further 10 APAC banking systems to negative, meaning that all 17 banking systems in the region are now assessed as having a negative sector outlook. This highlights our expectation that the global coronavirus pandemic will have wide-ranging effects on the region that will adversely affect bank performance in 2020 and into 2021.

Market Volatility Amid Coronavirus Tests Hong Kong Banks' Buffers

Global market volatility that followed another emergency US rate cut this week will further test the resilience of capital buffers for Hong Kong banks. However, the banks have become more prudent in their investment holdings and have built up capital and liquidity buffers since the 2008 global financial crisis, which should provide some cushion against near-term capital erosion from mark-to-market adjustments.

Australia Steps Up Economic Support, Banks to Still Feel Pain

The historic actions taken by the Australian authorities in response to financial market disruption and the growing likelihood of a recession in Australia should provide some support to domestic banks, businesses and households by reducing the cost of borrowing and providing liquidity to the system.

39% of APAC Corporates More Exposed to Coronavirus

Almost 40% of APAC corporates operate in sectors that have 'Moderate'-to-'High' levels of exposure to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak, and have 'Low' or only 'Moderate' rating headroom at their current ratings, based on a review of Fitch Rating's 316 publicly rated corporates in the region.




More on the Coronavirus


Coronavirus Impact on APAC Structured Finance

Date: March 20, 2020 (Friday)
Time: 11:00 HKT | 14:00 AEDT

Please join Fitch Ratings' senior analysts from the APAC Structured Finance Ratings team to discuss questions received from investors in recent weeks regarding how the coronavirus will affect structured finance transactions.


Register Now

China's First Onshore Bond Exchange Improves Restructuring Path

The completion of China's first onshore bond exchange offer opens up a more efficient and transparent path for debt restructuring, amid a rising risk of corporate defaults and debt restructurings in 2020. The mechanism could provide greater market transparency for bond investors and improve secondary market liquidity for distressed bonds.

New Malaysia Govt Confronts Coronavirus and Oil Price Shocks

The challenges posed by Malaysia's recent political volatility and the global coronavirus epidemic are being exacerbated by a sharp drop in oil prices that will add to the strains on the nation's public finances.

Indonesian Islamic Banking Roadmap to Boost Sector Development

Indonesia's new five-year roadmap for the country's Islamic banking sector should provide some impetus to its development, although most benefits are likely to be realised over the medium term rather than the near term. The wide-ranging roadmap addresses the need to strengthen regulations and corporate governance, boost penetration of sharia-compliant products, encourage R&D, and improve human resources in the sector.

Fed Cut Increases Revenue Hurdles for HK Banks as Virus Spreads

The urgency and magnitude of the US Federal Reserve rate cut exceeded market expectations, and with additional cuts in the coming months remaining a possibility, banks in Hong Kong may experience greater pressure on net interest margins than expected for 2020.

Malaysian Islamic Banks' Growing Contribution to Continue

The contribution of Islamic financing to Malaysian banking system loans is likely to rise further, supported by the regulatory backdrop that provides a level playing field and banks that continue to promote Islamic products.

Sri Lanka Finance Companies Face Added Regulatory Pressure

Sri Lanka's finance and leasing sector will face added pressure for consolidation as deadlines for the implementation of tougher capitalisation requirements approach in 2021. We view further consolidation of the sector as positive for financial sector stability in Sri Lanka, but the process could be impeded by a challenging operating environment.

COVID-19 Refinancing Risk Elevated for 6% of Rated China Corporates

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected operations of most of the 166 Chinese Fitch-rated corporates, with 6% (10 issuers) facing moderate to high risks in relation to their capital market debt maturities over the February-June 2020 period.




More on the Coronavirus

Hong Kong Budget Sees Sustained Softening of Public Finances

The considerable weakening of Hong Kong's medium-term fiscal position - as outlined in the budget delivered on 26 February - is unlikely by itself to put downward pressure on the territory's rating, given its large fiscal reserve.

China Onshore Corporate Issuance Likely to Stay Flat in 2020; SOE Share to Rise

Chinese corporates' onshore bond issuance this year is likely to stay at a similar level to that of 2019, based on a modest decline in bond maturities, offset by our expectation of an increase in funding requirements for investments undertaken by state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Political Concern and Refinancing Risks – Key Findings from the Fitch Ratings-FinanceAsia 2020 Asia Credit Market Outlook survey

Refinancing challenges and a material rise in defaults concern APAC market participants the most in 2020, revealed by the inaugural Asia Credit Market Outlook for 2020 survey conducted by FinanceAsia in partnership with Fitch Ratings.


Download the full report

Australian REITs Underpinned by Strong Portfolios and Development Pipelines

Urban-focused Australian REITs have delivered healthy rental income growth, as evident from the latest results. The property portfolios of Scentre Group Limited (A/Stable) and Mirvac Limited (A-/Stable) had occupancy rates of more than 99% as at December 2019 and comparable retail net operating income growth of 2%; Scentre for the financial year ending December 2019 and Mirvac for the first half of its financial year ending June 2020 (FY20).

India's IPO Plan Will Benefit Insurance Industry

The Indian government's proposed IPO of state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) will improve the accountability and transparency of the country's largest insurer and benefit the insurance industry. Fitch believes that the benefits may trickle down to the entire domestic insurance industry in terms of attracting more foreign interest, which could result in an increase in foreign capital inflows into the industry.

Fiscal Space Facilitates Singapore's Use of Stimulus Measures

Singapore retains exceptionally strong external and fiscal balance sheets, and the wider budget deficit unveiled this week does not jeopardise Singapore's 'AAA' rating, which was affirmed with a Stable Outlook last August.

special report

China Perspectives: An Economic Roadmap for COVID-19

The inaugural issue of our monthly commentary series discusses the economic roadmap for COVID-19. The severity of the economic shock from the outbreak of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus, even if eventually short-lived, will almost certainly command some kind of economic policy response.


Coronavirus - Refinancing Risks for Chinese Corporates

On Demand


Please join Fitch Ratings' senior analysts from the APAC Corporate Ratings team as we assess the refinancing risk posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and identify Chinese corporates that face elevated risk in relation to their capital market debt maturities.


Listen Now


China's New Subsidy Policy to Benefit Solar Farms

China's new policy on renewable subsidy distribution will help to accelerate solar farms' subsidy collection. The new policy requires subsidies be distributed to all eligible projects on a pro-rata basis, which will benefit those with below-average subsidy collection rates, defined as the ratio of received subsidies to total subsidies.

India's Budget Targets Slide Amid Growth Slowdown

The Indian government's budget for the fiscal year ending March 2021 (FY21) implies a modest degree of slippage from previous targets to consolidate public finances, says Fitch Ratings. However, its contents are consistent with our expectations when we affirmed the country's sovereign rating at 'BBB-'/Stable in December 2019.

Indonesian Government-Related Entities' Leverage to Continue to Rise

Indonesian government-related entities' (GRE) leverage is likely to keep rising in the next few years due to their role in executing the government's infrastructure development plans, their own capacity expansions, and mergers and acquisitions.


Fitch Ratings Named Best ESG, Investment Grade, Public Finance and Sovereigns Agency

Fitch Ratings has been recognised by The Asset as the Credit Rating Agency of the Year (2019) in four categories. This includes a first-time win in the publication's Triple A Award for ESG, a back-to-back award for Investment Grade, the third award in a row for Sovereigns and the fifth consecutive win for Public Finance.

Thai Deals Highlight Asian Banks' Rising Risk Appetite

A number of Thai banks have looked to expand their international operations in recent weeks, highlighting a trend towards rising risk appetite among banks in Asia. The trend, which has been fed by pressures on profitability, could influence the ratings for some banks venturing into challenging operating environments.

Preview of the Exclusive Interview with Finance Minister of Malaysia Lim Guan Eng

Stephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereigns and Lim Guan Eng, Finance Minister of Malaysia discuss Malaysia’s economic outlook and challenges, budget policies, outlook of the political developments, governance and Malaysia’s role on the international stage.


Watch the full interview here



Malaysia Confronts Challenge of Shoring up Investor Confidence

Sri Lanka SME Credit Support Scheme Has Limited Effect on Banks

A scheme for Sri Lankan banks to provide special credit support to SMEs this year should not have a material effect on banks' credit profiles. We believe that the scheme will prolong the resolution of non-performing loans only until end-2020, and delay capital repayments this year, but banks' improved liquidity due to a slowdown in loan growth in 2019 should mitigate the effects. 

Outlooks 2020

Global Auto Sector Challenges Will Raise Risk, Upend Trajectories

Weakening demand, technological change, stricter fuel emission standards and trade uncertainty may upend trends in the global auto sector and pressure profitability and cash flow.



Digital Banks Credit Negative for Small Malaysian Banks

Malaysia's proposal to grant up to five digital bank licences is likely to intensify competition in the banking industry which is already experiencing margin compression, with the smaller banks potentially more vulnerable

Rapid Tech Adoption May Boost China Retail Sector Concentration

A growing focus on technology may serve to drive concentration within China's retail sector, says Fitch Ratings. The trend may raise capital intensity, and could increase business volatility and exposure to regulatory interventions.

Fixed Interests Podcast

Asian Frontier Markets

Asia’s Frontier Markets have great potential, but are also prone to external financing pressures. In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, moderates a discussion with Sagarika Chandra and Jeremy Zook, Associate Directors on the Sovereigns team, to discuss the ratings outlook for Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam.


New Philippine Regulations May Boost Islamic Banking

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) announcement in early January on the approval of new regulations for Islamic banks and banking units is a positive step towards the establishment of a cohesive Islamic finance regulatory framework in the country.

outlooks 2020

China Credit Outlooks 2020

China enters 2020 with growth pressures and uncertainties surrounding the trade dispute with the US. Find our China related Credit Outlooks reports, video, webinars and events across different sectors here, to give you in-depth insight into credit in 2020 and beyond.

TLAC Issuance in Japan to Continue as Nomura Goes Offshore

Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s (NHI; A-/Stable) issue of Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) eligible senior debt denominated in foreign currency marks the start of its TLAC debt issuance outside Japan, and Fitch Ratings expects the company to issue USD2 billion-3 billion of TLAC eligible instruments annually.

US-China Deal Helps World Growth Stabilise; Uncertainties Persist

The signing of the US-China "Phase One" trade deal will boost business confidence and supports our view that global economic growth will stabilise in 2020.

Sharp Rise in Cross-Strait Tensions Unlikely Despite DPP Win

The outcome of Taiwan's elections further underscores the geopolitical risks associated with the island's complex relations with the mainland, as captured in Fitch Ratings' 'AA-' rating and Stable Outlook. However, the re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen, and the renewed majority for her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the legislature, is unlikely to mark a sea change in cross-Strait relations.

Japan Life Insurers' Unhedged Foreign-Currency Exposures Raise Risks

Japanese life insurers' pursuit of better yields have led them to expand their foreign-currency denominated assets and increase their unhedged foreign-currency exposures, which will make their investment portfolios more risky.

Global Wildfire Risk Illustrates ESG Factor Relevance for Credit

Recent catastrophic wildfires in Australia and California underscore the importance of environmental considerations when evaluating the credit quality of utilities.

Related Report:
Global Wildfire Risk Illustrates ESG Factor Relevance for Credit


Asia-Pacific Insurance 2020 Outlook (Japan, China and South Korea)

Date: January 16, 2020
Time: 15:30 HKT


Please join Fitch Ratings’ Asia-Pacific Insurance Rating Team on Thursday Jan 16th at 15:30 HKT/SGT as they discuss the 2020 outlook Life and Non-Life sectors of Japan, China and South Korea.

Click here to register for the event

Philippine Property Price Surge Heightens Banking Risks

A sustained surge in Philippine property prices over the past three quarters presents rising risks to the country's banking system operating environment, Fitch Ratings says. Recent data point to speculative activity that could affect market stability if unchecked.


Asia-Pacific Banks 2020 Outlook

Please join Fitch Ratings’ senior analysts from APAC Banks team to discuss the key themes and 2020 outlook for APAC Banks. We are hosting 2 webinars to discuss Emerging Market Banks and Developed Market Banks within APAC.


Please click below links to register:

2020 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Developed Market Banks Webinar
Date: Jan 10, 2020 (Friday)
Time: 15:00 HKT


2020 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Emerging Market Banks Webinar
Date: Jan 15, 2020 (Wednesday)
Time: 15:30 HKT


Related Report:

China's New SOE Performance Indicators to Aid Consolidation

China's plan to introduce new indicators to evaluate the performance of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and control their holdings and investments in non-core businesses will help to step up the pace of state-resource consolidation.


Vietnam Banks' Capital to Remain Weak After Basel II Delay

The State Bank of Vietnam's decision to offer some banks forbearance on Basel II implementation highlights weak capitalisation in the sector, with many banks in no position to meet the requirements by January 2020.

Foreign Insurers to Step Up Expansion in China Life Market

The removal of a cap on foreign ownership in Chinese life insurers will spur international insurers to expand in the segment. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will allow foreign investors to raise their stakes in life insurance companies to 100% from 1 January 2020, from the current 51%.

What Investors Want to Know - Credit Trends for APAC Banks

Jonathan Cornish, Head of APAC Banks, discusses the main credit trend Fitch is monitoring at banks across the region – rising risk appetite to support growth and alleviate pressure on profitability.

Related Report: What Investors Want to Know: Asia-Pacific Investment-Grade Banks
Related Commentary: Weaker Environment Exacerbates Challenges for APAC Banks

China's Stricter P2P Regulatory/Capital Rules a Credit Positive

The increased regulatory and capital requirements for China's peer-to-peer (P2P) lenders should continue to put pressure on the sustainability of business models across the sector in 2020, leading to further industry contraction.

Outlooks 2020: The Coming Storm

High Indebtedness, Low Growth Shapes 2020 Global Credit Outlook

A combination of slowing economic growth, sustained low interest rates and unprecedented levels of indebtedness will broadly influence the global credit outlook in 2020, says Fitch Ratings. The aggregate rise in global indebtedness in 2019, which occurred as monetary authorities reversed course on rate hikes, will increase vulnerabilities for key sectors in the event of a more rapid than expected economic downturn.

Read the ReportFitch Ratings 2020: The Coming Storm

outlooks 2020

China Credit Outlook

Stephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereigns, discusses the outlook for China sovereign, banking sector and LGFVs with Andrew Fennell, Lead China Sovereign Analyst, Grace Wu, Head of Greater China Banks, and Terry Gao, Head of APAC Public Finance.


View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Capital Allocation and Chinese Stimulus Support Miners' Financial Profiles

Fitch Ratings says maintaining competitive cost positions across the portfolio and disciplined capital allocation are crucial for large mining companies to support cash flow generation in times of weaker demand growth. Chinese stimulus can be expected to limit further downside for commodity prices in the near term.

outlooks 2020

Stable Outlook for Asia-Pacific House Prices in 2020

Fitch Ratings expects government policies to help keep house prices in Asia-Pacific markets stable in 2020, with the exception of Australia, where the house-price recovery that began in July 2019 is likely to continue, supported by low interest rates and a benign economy.


Related Report: Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook - 2020

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Prospects for Asia-Pacific Corporates Turning More Negative in 2020

Fitch Ratings forecasts a stable sector outlook for its portfolio of 408 Asia-Pacific corporates with international ratings for 2020. However, credit conditions are likely to be challenging, particularly for exporters, in light of trade tensions and slowing global growth.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Corporates

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Chinese Steel Production to Fall in 2020; Profitability to Recover

Fitch Ratings expects China's total steel production to fall in 2020 after reaching record highs in 2019 (9M19: 750 million tonnes (mt), versus 700mt in 9M18). We expect a slowdown in residential property construction and an overall decrease in total steelmaking capacity, driven by more capacity exits from higher environmental and emission standards.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: China Steel

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Contagion Risk Still High Despite China Shadow Banking Decline

China's determination to reduce the size of shadow banking risks has exceeded expectations, contributing to a faster than expected decline in assets. The authorities' commitment is all the more surprising given the backdrop of a slowing domestic economy and the China-US trade war; notwithstanding, we expect this regulatory commitment to managing shadow banking growth to continue in 2020.

Fitch Ratings Wins 2 Structured Finance Awards; Named Best in Financial Institutions & Public Finance

Fitch Ratings has been recognized as the best rating agency for structured finance at FinanceAsia's annual 2019 achievement awards and was also voted Australian structured finance rating agency of the year by KangaNews. FinanceAsia also named Fitch as the best credit ratings agency for financial institutions and public finance.

What Investors Want to Know – Australian Banks Outlook

Tim Roche, Senior Director, APAC Financial Institutions, explains our rationale for the negative sector outlook on Australian banks, which reflects our expectation of continued earnings pressure into 2020.


Related Commentary: Weaker Environment Exacerbates Challenges for APAC Banks
Related Report: What Investors Want to Know: Asia-Pacific Investment-Grade Banks

Comparison between LGFVs in China and India (Part II)

Samuel Kwok, Director, International Public Finance, explains how LGFVs finance urban developments in China and India respectively.

outlooks 2020

Chinese Homebuilders' Strategies, Credit Trends to Diverge

Chinese homebuilders should continue to face difficult conditions in 2020, with flat sales volume growth and modest price gains, says Fitch Ratings. Nevertheless, we have revised our sector outlook to stable, from negative in 2019, as we believe government has considerable scope to adjust policies in order to support stable development.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: China Homebuilding

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Hong Kong's Role in Global Finance Intact Despite Unrest

There is little evidence so far that the social unrest in Hong Kong has adversely affected its role as a global financial centre, even amid severe short-term economic pressures, Fitch Ratings says. However, continued turmoil is undermining perceptions of Hong Kong as a stable international business hub as well as the effectiveness of its governance, trends consistent with our Negative Outlook on Hong Kong's 'AA' rating.

Comparison between LGFVs in China and India (Part I)

Samuel Kwok, Director, International Public Finance, discusses the fundamental difference between LGFVs in China and India – their government frameworks.

Governance Weaknesses Correlate with APAC Corporate Ratings

Potential corporate governance weaknesses largely correlate with an issuer's rating level, Fitch Ratings says in report published today that details the findings of a recent study of a large sample of APAC corporate ratings.

More Indian NBFCs to Go Offshore as Funding Crunch Continues

India's non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) will look increasingly to offshore financing in 2020 as local funding conditions are likely to remain under pressure, says Fitch Ratings. However, we expect offshore access to be confined to larger entities with stronger credit fundamentals.

China's Latest NEV Plan to Lift Automakers' Investment Needs

China's shift from subsidising new-energy vehicle (NEV) purchases to an ecosystem-driven approach is likely to reduce traditional automakers' bargaining power in the value chain and increase their investment needs, says Fitch Ratings.

Outlook on Japanese Structured Finance Transactions Mostly Stable

The outlook on the ratings and asset performance for Fitch-rated Japanese structured finance transactions, including auto loan ABS and apartment loan CMBS, are mostly stable

outlooks 2020

Service Sector Resilience to Help Global Growth Stabilise in 2020

The resilience of the service sector and consumer spending growth in the advanced economies should help global growth stabilise next year, after a sharp decline in 2019, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).

View all Outlooks: 

Credit Outlooks 2020
Global Economic Outlook

outlooks 2020

Webinar: 2020 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Sovereigns

December 11, 2019
4:00pm HKT

Join Fitch’s senior analysts from APAC Sovereign team to discuss the 2020 outlook - Financial buffers and policy easing help sustain growth in APAC.

Register Now

Related Reports

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Most APAC Bank Sector Outlooks Stable, but Risk Appetite Rising

The sector outlooks on most Asia-Pacific (APAC) banking systems are stable, says Fitch Ratings in two reports published today. However, most banks are increasing their risk appetite in response to pressure on profitability, while the outlooks on four of the region's developed-market banking systems and three of the emerging-market banking systems are negative.


Related Report:
2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Developed Market Banks
2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Emerging Market Banks

View all Outlooks:
Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Emerging Asia's Finance and Leasing Cos Face a Challenging 2020

The operating environment for finance and leasing companies in China, India and Indonesia is likely to remain challenging in 2020, with tight funding conditions, a weak economic background and deteriorating asset quality testing the resilience of issuers' financial profiles and business models, says Fitch Ratings. We have assigned a negative outlook to the sector.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: APAC Emerging Market Finance and Leasing Companies

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Weaker Environment Exacerbates Challenges for APAC Banks

Global macroeconomic challenges are likely to increase pressure on the short-term earnings prospects of investment-grade banks in the Asia-Pacific, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. The report addresses the main questions asked by US and Canada-based investors during a recent tour by Fitch analysts to discuss mainly investment-grade rated banking systems, with particular focus on Australia, New Zealand, mainland China and Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Singapore.


Related Report: What Investors Want to Know: Asia-Pacific Investment-Grade Banks

outlooks 2020

APAC Utilities - Marginal Decline in Sector Leverage and Capex

Fitch Ratings expects a marginal decline in sector average leverage for Asia-Pacific (APAC) utilities in 2020, as growth in funds from operations outpaces the rise in debt. We expect sector median capex to come down from the previous peaks, but to remain high.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Utilities

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Japanese Insurers Investment Risks Likely to Rise in 2020

The biggest risks for Japanese insurers will continue to stem from financial markets in 2020, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch expects insurers to boost their investments in foreign credit-spread products in search of yield amid the 'super-low' interest rates in Japan.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: Japan Life and Non-Life Insurance

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Chinese Insurers Adjusting for Stable Earnings and Capital

Fitch Ratings maintains a stable outlook on the Chinese insurance sector, reflecting an ongoing shift in the business mix to seek a stable stream of premium and enhance margins. Capitalisation remains adequate to support asset risks in view of more efficient asset-liability management (ALM) amid challenging financial markets.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: China Insurance

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

APAC Oil and Gas - Investment Momentum to Continue

Fitch Ratings' stable outlook on rated APAC oil and gas (O&G) issuers reflect the strong sovereign linkages of most Fitch-rated O&G entities or such entities being key subsidiaries of sovereign-owned national oil companies (NOCs). We envisage minimal rating changes as most sovereign ratings are on stable outlook, except Thailand and Vietnam which are on Positive Outlook.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Oil and Gas

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

APAC Autos Face Tough Environment; Supported by Financial Profiles

Fitch Ratings expects weaker global demand and rising investment to continue to put pressure on Asia-Pacific automotive manufacturers' profitability and cash flow generation in 2020.

Related Report: APAC Autos Face Tough Environment; Supported by Financial Profiles

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

outlooks 2020

Conducive Policies Underpin Stable Outlook for India and Indonesia Property

Fitch Ratings has a stable outlook on the south and south-east Asian property market. This is driven largely by our outlook on Indonesian property, which forms the bulk of Fitch's rated-issuers in the region.

Related Report: 2020 Outlook: South and South-East Asia Property

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Outlooks 2020

Steady Expansion for Chinese Engineering and Construction on High Leverage in 2020

Fitch Ratings expects the construction activity in 2020 of Chinese engineering and construction (E&C) companies to expand at levels similar to 2019, with a probable property-sector slowdown due to tighter financing for developers being offset by a rise in infrastructure investment as the government quickens project approvals and relaxes financing rules. However, leverage is likely to stay high on working-capital outflows and negative free cash flow.

Related Report: 2020 Outlook: China Engineering and Construction

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Outlooks 2020

Korean Insurers' Profitability to be Under Pressure in 2020

Fitch Ratings maintains a stable outlook for the Korean insurance sector, with strengthening of capital adequacy following the tightening in the regulatory capital regime to be offset by downward pressure on insurers' financial performance.

Related Report2020 Outlook: Korea Insurance

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Outlooks 2020

Stable 2020 Outlook for China's Structured Finance

Fitch Ratings maintains a stable asset performance outlook and Stable rating Outlook for Chinese auto-loan ABS and RMBS for 2020. We expect asset performance to be supported by an expanding, albeit slowing, economy, as highlighted by still-low unemployment and rising disposable incomes.

Related Report2020 Outlook: China Structured Finance

View all outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

India Auto-Loan ABS Pools Continue to Outperform Originators' Mother Pools

Indian auto-loan ABS transactions will continue to outperform the portfolios of their respective originators. The transactions we rate typically have peak 90+days past due (dpd) rates that are 30% to 60% lower than the vintage pools of the originators for the different loan types. The key reason for the better performance of securitised transactions is the exclusion of a riskier portion of the originators' portfolios.

CNBC & Bloomberg Radio

Asia Gaming Trip Takeaways (Macro Headwinds in Macau; Sound Rationale for Singapore Expansions)

The  current  macro environment in China underpins our low single-digit growth-rate forecast for Macau gaming revenues in 2020. VIP segment is expected to remain flat, with some downside risk should US/China trade relations escalate further, while the mass segment should grow in-line with China GDP.


Related press interviews:
Expect single-digit growth for Macau gaming in 2020
Mass Market Gaming in Macau Is Holding Up


How Falling Coal Prices are Likely to Affect Indonesian Miners

Available On-Demand


Fitch Ratings expects Geo Energy Resources Limited (B/Negative) and PT ABM Investama Tbk (B+/Negative) to be the most sensitive to falling coal prices among Fitch-rated Indonesian coal miners. The two companies are likely to face the most cash flow pressure and liquidity will suffer from sustained coal-price falls.


Listen to Webinar: Indonesian Coal Miners

Related Report: Spotlight: Indonesian Coal Miners

Marketing Costs Offset Korean Telcos' Wireless Growth

South Korea's accelerating 5G conversion has led to a growth in wireless average revenue per user and revenue in 3Q19, but operating profit has been weighed down by higher handset subsidies amid intensifying competition. However, we expect operating profit to gradually improve over the medium term as the high marketing costs in the early stage of 5G adoption will be increasingly offset by benefits of expansion in the 5G subscriber base.

Fire Premium Hike Positive for Japanese Non-Life; Limited Earnings Impact

Fitch Ratings views premium increases for fire business recently approved by Japan's Financial Services Agency as positive for the earnings of non-life insurers. However, this will be offset in part by rising reinsurance costs due to a likely rise in reinsurance premiums and coverage. A short-term boost may also be somewhat limited as most retail fire policies have multi-year terms with a maximum of 10 years.

Sri Lanka Election Result Increases Policy Uncertainty

Sri Lanka's presidential election significantly increases policy uncertainty and could prompt loosening that exacerbates fiscal weaknesses and a rollback of reforms. However, whether these risks materialise remains to be seen as a clear policy direction may only start to emerge after parliamentary elections.

IBOR Transition a Challenge for Small Portion of Sukuk Market

The transition to new risk-free rates (RFRs) creates challenges for the small portion of the sukuk market that reference legacy IBORs, Fitch Ratings says. These sukuk will face the same uncertainties as conventional bonds, with the added complexity of how transition to RFRs can be accommodated in underlying sukuk structures.

Korean Banks to Steer Steady Course Despite Macro Challenges

South Korean banks will report a steady performance for the remainder of 2019, despite slowing economic growth. Banks are showing modest decline in profitability (yoy) due to narrower interest margins and slightly higher credit costs, but in line with Fitch's previous forecasts.

rating action

Fitch Affirms China at 'A+'; Outlook Stable

China's ratings are supported by the country's robust external finances, strong macroeconomic performance, and size as the world's second-largest economy. The ratings are primarily constrained by large structural vulnerabilities in the financial sector, relatively low per capita income, and weaker governance metrics than those of 'A' rated peers.

outlooks 2020

Australian, New Zealand Structured Finance Ratings Stable as House Prices Stabilise

Fitch Ratings' outlook for asset performance of and ratings on Australian and New Zealand structured finance is stable for 2020. The agency's view, which remains unchanged from 2019, is due to the sector being supported by continued GDP growth of 2.3% for Australia and 2.4% for New Zealand.


Related Report: 2020 Outlook: Australia, New Zealand Structured Finance

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Chinese Credit Card ABS Falters as Auto ABS, RMBS Remain Strong

China's credit card ABS performance has deteriorated significantly over the past 21 months amid aggressive expansion by some banks into consumer finance, rising household debt and the spillover from the crackdown on shadow banking.

outlooks 2020

APAC Technology - Trade Rows Biggest Risk to Sector Stability

Prolonged US-China trade tension and slower growth in China are the biggest risks to an otherwise stable sector outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC) technology companies.

Related report: 2020 Outlook: Technology/Asia-Pacific

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

China Corporate Bond Market Blue Book: Defaults More Common; Documentation and Legal Framework Still Evolving

The China Corporate bond market has been evolving rapidly in recent years. The latest issue of China Corporate Bond Market Blue Book is an update to our last edition published in May 2015 which presents our observations on key market developments, including corporate bond defaults, post-default workouts, new bond categories, and emerging credit derivatives products.


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China’s Corporate Bond Market: Rising Defaults Amid Further Opening-up

outlooks 2020

APAC Telcos - Competition, Capex Limit Deleveraging

Fitch Ratings expects Asia-Pacific (APAC) telecoms operators to undertake prudent capital preservation and a sharper focus on profitability over the next 12 months, to manage their credit strength ahead of a progressive 5G investment cycle. Regulatory issues and high spectrum fees in India are the biggest risks to sector recovery.


Related Report: Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Telecoms

View all Outlooks: Credit Outlooks 2020

Commodities Credit Journal

Our Credit Journals are a curated compilation of Fitch Ratings’ in-depth research and commentary. 

Download the Commodities Credit Journal.

China Corporates May Post Slowest Earnings Growth in Four Years

China's A-share listed corporates are likely to report the slowest growth for revenue and profit from operations since the last downturn in 2015-2016 this year amid an economic slowdown and the ongoing US-China trade dispute.


Related Press Release:
China Corporates May Post Slowest Earnings Growth in Four Years

Australian Fixed-Income Investor Survey 4Q19

Australian fixed-income investors consider political and geopolitical risk to be the greatest threat to domestic credit markets over the next 12 months. A record-high 74% of respondents consider this to be a high risk; in fact, all top-five risks are linked to politics or possible fallouts from political disagreements, such as a China hard landing or a housing-market downturn.

Related Press ReleasePolitical Disagreements Unsettle Australian

Download the Full ReportAustralian Fixed-Income Investor Survey 4Q19


Fitch Wins China Ratings Agency Award for Second Year Running

Fitch Ratings has been named the "Best International Ratings Agency" in FinanceAsia's China Awards for the second consecutive year.


Fitch Wins Best Rating Agency for Emerging Market Bonds at Global Capital Awards

We are pleased to announce we have been voted the Best Rating Agency for Emerging Market Bonds at this year's Global Capital Awards. "Analytical excellence is a core focus at Fitch and this further recognition from global market participants underlines the quality of our emerging market analysis and commentary, as well as our broader market outreach efforts," Brett Hemsley, Global Analytical Head for Fitch Ratings.

Learn more about Fitch and Emerging Markets

Fitch Ratings Voted Best Agency for Chinese USD Bonds in 3 Categories

Fitch Ratings has been voted the "Outstanding Rating Agency for Chinese Companies' USD Bonds" in three categories by users of Wall Street Trader, a financial web application widely used by participants in China's debt capital markets. 


Fitch Ratings Named Best Islamic Finance Rating Agency for Third Year

Fitch Ratings has been recognised as the Best Rating Agency for Islamic Finance for the third straight year by The Asset, a leading financial magazine in the Asia-Pacific.

China Private Education Blue Book

Revenue growth in China's private education sector, which consists of private schools and private education service providers, is likely to moderate to high-single-digits, from the low-teens.


Other Blue Books

You may also access the links below for more In-depth industry and bond market analysis:


Sing Chan Ng


Sing Chan Ng

Business Inquiries

+65 6796 7210

Stephen Schwartz


Stephen Schwartz


+852 2263 9938

Buddhika Piyasena


Buddhika Piyasena


+65 6796 7223

Jonathan Cornish

Financial Institutions

Jonathan Cornish


+852 2263 9901

Terry Gao

International Public Finance

Terry Gao


+852 2263 9972

Sajal Kishore

Global Infrastructure Group

Sajal Kishore


+65 6796 7095

Jeff Liew


Jeff Liew


+852 2263 9939

Ben McCarthy

Structured Finance

Ben McCarthy


+61 2 8256 0388

Bashar Al Natoor

Islamic Finance

Bashar Al Natoor

Analytical Group Head

+971 4424 1242

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